About
I trade APAC power markets with a regime-first, high-conviction approach. My edge comes from deep fundamentals — hydro storage, weather regimes, load dynamics and thermal stack behaviour — supported by full-stack modelling I built across NZ, JP and AU.
I transitioned from modelling into discretionary trading in NZ, where I proved my ability to identify structural regime shifts and convert them into multi-month directional exposures. My mandate later expanded to Japan, managing both markets simultaneously, which sharpened my understanding of bandwidth, focus and the discipline required to scale risk only when the signal is clean.
A sharp correction in 2025 forced a reset and reaffirmed what drives my best performance: concentrated attention, clear regimes, and asymmetric distributions. I also played a role in stabilising the APAC desk after major Australian losses — reinforcing my value beyond individual P&L.
My process is simple: regime clarity, fundamental confirmation, patient positioning, disciplined sizing.
Track Record (High-Level)
Selected Highlights
- Consistent regime-driven profitability across multiple market cycles.
- Largest gains generated during structural storage and weather dislocations.
- Selective risk-taking backed by full-stack modelling and clear validation rules.
- Disciplined exits during liquidity- or volatility-driven invalidations.
- Low-frequency, high-impact execution with strict accountability.
| Period | Mandate | Result (Range) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | NZ Power | Low to mid 7-figure | Live trading launch Sep23 following full model build; regime inflection captured |
| 2024 | NZ Power | Low to mid 7-figure | Extended structural storage oversupply; strong directional alignment |
| Early 2025 | NZ Power | Low to mid 7-figure | High-conviction bullish setup; exited during market-driven correction |
| 2025 | Japan Power | N/A | Japan mandate (2025): analytical build + early monitoring; no standalone P&L reported |
| 2025 | NZ Power | Low 7-figure | Reduced size; controlled downside during transition period |
Performance is shown in ranges for confidentiality. Full figures available under NDA.
Selected risk metrics: Recovery Factor ≈ 2.0 • MAR ≈ 1.5
Normalised contributions across major trading cycles: initial launch, structural oversupply, bullish reversal, and transition period.
Trading Philosophy
Build. Validate. Execute.
My philosophy is grounded in accountability and skin in the game. I build my own models, validate regimes through fundamentals, and take risk only when the distribution is clearly asymmetric. The objective is disciplined, low-frequency execution that targets high-impact regime shifts.
- Regime-led framework: fundamentals dictate positioning, never noise.
- Accountability at every decision point, with clear invalidation rules.
- Skin-in-the-game mindset: conviction paired with disciplined sizing.
- Low-frequency, high-impact trading focused on asymmetric outcomes.
- Continuous refinement of models, tooling, and market understanding.