About
I trade APAC power markets with a regime-first, high-conviction approach. My edge comes from deep fundamentals — hydro storage, weather regimes, load dynamics and thermal stack behaviour — supported by full-stack modelling I built across NZ, JP and AU.
I transitioned from modelling into discretionary trading in NZ, where I proved my ability to identify structural regime shifts and convert them into multi-month directional exposures. My mandate later expanded to Japan, managing both markets simultaneously, which sharpened my understanding of bandwidth, focus and the discipline required to scale risk only when the signal is clean.
A structural volatility event in 2025 served as the ultimate stress test of my risk framework. My decision to strictly adhere to drawdown limits and step away for a research phase was a feature of my process, not a bug—prioritizing capital preservation and mandate adherence over chasing recovery.
My process is simple: regime clarity, fundamental confirmation, patient positioning, disciplined sizing.
Track Record (High-Level)
Selected Highlights
- Consistent regime-driven profitability across multiple market cycles.
- Largest gains generated during structural storage and weather dislocations.
- Selective risk-taking backed by full-stack modelling and clear validation rules.
- Disciplined exits during liquidity- or volatility-driven invalidations.
| Period | Mandate | Result | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (Q3-Q4) | NZ Power | Positive | Live trading launch. Captured hydro regime inflection immediately post-deployment. |
| 2024 | NZ Power | Strong Positive | Recovery & Alpha: Fully recovered Q1 drawdown via high-efficiency Q2 trading. Monetized Q3 regulatory/hydro dislocation to end year at a new High-Water Mark. |
| Jan – May 2025 | NZ Power | Drawdown Limit Hit |
Q1: Volatile round-trip (Peak P&L → Flat). Q2: Re-deployed risk after fundamental review. Thesis invalidated; strictly executed hard stop & resignation. |
| Japan Power | Model Ready | Completed fundamental stack build (thermal/hydro) & backtest. Signal generation validated. | |
| Jun – Dec 2025 | Research Phase | IP Development | Non-compete period. Focused on recalibrating entry timing models and refining the Japan strategy framework. |
Performance descriptors (Positive / Strong Positive) represent regime-driven returns. Specific Sharpe ratios, volatility metrics, and P&L attribution are available under NDA.
Trading Philosophy
Build. Validate. Execute.
My philosophy is grounded in accountability and skin in the game. I build my own models, validate regimes through fundamentals, and take risk only when the distribution is clearly asymmetric. The objective is disciplined, low-frequency execution that targets high-impact regime shifts.
- Regime-led framework: fundamentals dictate positioning, never noise.
- Accountability at every decision point, with clear invalidation rules.
- Skin-in-the-game mindset: conviction paired with disciplined sizing.
- Low-frequency, high-impact trading focused on asymmetric outcomes.
- Continuous refinement of models, tooling, and market understanding.